TRUMP LOST THIS WAR

TRUMP LOST THIS WAR.  HE LOST BIG TIME.

 

Iran’s hard-line government remains in place. The specifics of the nuclear agreement will apparently be negotiated over the next two months, but the terms seem likely to resemble those of a 2015 deal that President Barack Obama negotiated and that Mr. Trump canceled in 2018. He described the Obama agreement as the “worst deal ever” and said it put Iran on “a route to a nuclear weapon.” He criticized it for failing to force Iran to stop supporting terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah and for loosening economic sanctions. Yet his destructive war seems likely to leave him with a similar deal.

His biggest achievement in the cease-fire framework is the expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to global shipping traffic, which will eventually reduce the prices of energy and other goods. That, of course, is merely a reversion to the prewar status quo. Iran closed the strait in retaliation, to damage the global economy and increase political pressure on the United States. The move worked, and Iran’s leaders now understand that they hold a powerful economic weapon.

On balance, Iran emerges the strategic winner of the four-month war. It did suffer substantial losses, including much of its navy, air force, military-industrial capacity and political leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, who was killed on the war’s first day. With the war ending, however, Iran’s leadership can begin rebuilding.

The United States, for its part, looks weaker in the eyes of the world. The American military has shown itself unable to quash a much smaller opponent even as it burned through many of its long-range precision missiles and interceptors. The outcome damages this country’s ability to deter other potential adversaries. To begin to repair the damage, the United States would be wise to mend alliances in Europe, the Middle East and Asia that have been frayed by the war’s military and economic effects. The Pentagon will also need to modernize and prepare for the wars of the future. Neither is likely to happen under President Trump.

An agreement with Iran to end Trump’s war? Not so fast.

As the grotesque mixed-martial arts fights took place on the White House lawn to mark the aging of the president, there was some sort of agreement that allegedly ended hostilities against Iran by the U.S. The absence of the actual text of the three-page memorandum of understanding has not stopped gullible media from repeating Trump’s claims about the agreement. A few media outlets—like the NYTimes—had the decency to couch their reporting as “claims made” by Trump. See, e.g., Trump Claims Strait Will Be ‘Permanently Toll-Free’ Under Agreement With Iran. Iran appeared to contradict the premise of Trump’s claim on Sunday, saying that the Strait would reopen “under Iran’s administration.”

 

Even as Trump’s claims about the agreement shifted inexplicably on Sunday, Iran contradicted Trump. So, the only prudent thing to do is to say what we don’t know about the agreement. A good example of such reporting can be found in The Guardian, What do we know about the US-Iran peace deal – and what questions remain?

 

As explained by The Guardian, the following items are subject to competing claims on Sunday evening:

 

The timing of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. On Sunday, Trump said the Strait would open “immediately,” but then changed position to say it would open by Friday of this week “to allow for clearing of mines.” The intermediary who helped broker the agreement, Pakistan’s Prime Minister, said that “the agreed memorandum of understanding calls for the reopening of the strait within 30 days.”

 

Control of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump says the Strait will open “toll-free.” Iran’s Prime Minister said the Strait would reopen “under Iranian arrangements.” Whatever “under Iranian arrangements” means, it appears to be something different than “toll-free.” Per the New York Times, the agreement says only that Iran agrees to “suspend tolls in the strait for only 60 days.”

 

Ceasefire in Lebanon. An Iranian negotiator said, “A permanent and immediate end to the war has been declared on all fronts, including Lebanon.” Trump made no mention of Lebanon in his remarks. Israel is not a party to the agreement; Israel and Hezbollah (in Beirut) exchanged strikes on Sunday, an hour before the agreement was electronically signed. See Axios, Trump to Axios: Netanyahu has “no ******* judgment” but Iran deal still on. In short, the inclusion of Lebanon in the ceasefire seems to be a disputed question as of late on Sunday.

 

Iran’s nuclear program. Trump claims that “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon,” but if it develops one, the US will recommence hostilities against Iran. So, a real lack of clarity on this point, even from Trump. Per The Guardian,

The president repeated on Sunday his promise that “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon” but senior Pakistani officials told the Associated Press that nuclear talks would continue over the next 60 days. Trump himself told the New York Times that if Tehran failed to reach a nuclear deal, it could come under fresh attack by the US military.

 

While administration officials (like JD Vance) are saying that the agreement will “fundamentally reshape the Middle East for the next 50 years,” the unreleased agreement seems to reduce to the following:

  • The Strait of Hormuz will resume its prewar status, except that Iran may charge tolls; and
  • The US and Iran will continue negotiations over Iran’s uranium enrichment program.

That’s it. Despite all of the posturing and preening that will follow, Trump got nothing in exchange for an illegal war that costs hundreds of billions of dollars, inflicted global economic injury, increased inflation in the US, and resulted in the deaths of 14 US soldiers and thousands of Iranian citizens, including much of its moderate civilian leadership. The Middle East and the US now face a newly emboldened Iran with more militant leadership.

Iranians say what no American official will say: “Trump is batshit crazy and is not fit to negotiate.”

Amid the ongoing peace talks between Washington and Tehran, Iranian negotiators have recently enlisted the help of “senior psychologists” to help them navigate what they believe to be a pressing issue involving President Donald Trump.

A couple of weeks ago, the Iranian side added senior psychologists to their negotiating team to review the communications that they were going to be sending to the mediators to give to Trump.

They did that because the Iranians believe that Trump is legitimately mentally ill and is operating in an impaired mental state. And they didn’t say this as a joke, they didn’t say this with any lightness.

Iranians told reporters “we recognize that we are dealing with a mentally incapacitated individual and we’ve had senior psychologists work up a psychological profile of what they think is going on with Trump’s brain, and so we started to cater our messages by running them past senior psychologists before delivering them to Trump.”

“And they said ‘we started to then see some progress’ – they almost talked about it in a clinical sense like they’re dealing with a patient.”

Meanwhile, in a letter to US counterparts, Iranian psychologists call for dialogue on Trump’s mental health  This is from April but is still highly relevant.

A group of Iranian psychologists, in an open letter to their American counterparts, urged professional dialogue regarding serious psychological and personality concerns about US President Donald Trump.

The letter, signed by ‘The Iranian Psychological Society,’ calls for a scientific examination of the US president’s behavioral patterns, which they say pose a direct threat to global peace.

In the letter, the Iranian psychologists question whether any mechanism exists within the United States to assess and ensure the psychological stability and mental health of the sitting president.

This is what the White House lawn looks like now

 

 

I was born and reared in rural south Mississippi.  I know white trash when I see it.  This is white trash all the way — this “mixed martial arts” is entertainment for the mentally challenged;  the Trump family may be rich (they are not really) but they are still white trash — which is why he was never accepted by the upper crust in New York.

A West Virginia trailer park has more class thaht this collection of fools.

And if you celebrate this ugliness, you need help . . . but are too goddam stupid to realize just how stupid you are.