“Bain & Standard Chartered’s 2026 SE Asia Green Economy Report: data centres, EVs & green industrial parks will drive 100+ TWh of new power demand in 3-4 years, requiring $200B+ in investment. $540B in announced green spending is on a credible path to deployment.
@JavierBlas on Odd Lots today: everyone expected oil at $200+ with 60+ days of Hormuz closed. We’re not there because bypass pipelines, SPR drawdowns, and inventory burns have cushioned the shock. But the biggest surprise? ~5% demand destruction that nobody saw coming.
Where did that 5% oil demand destruction come from? Not just EVs — it’s price-driven behavioural change, Asia absorbing the sharpest hit, and crucially: countries with existing clean energy infrastructure simply felt less pain. The energy transition was quietly doing work.
The inventory math is now getting scary.
- JPMorgan warns OECD commercial inventories hit operational minimums by end of May.
- Rapidan says product stocks go critical July-August.
- Hormuz now cannot reopen before the end of the summer.
- Oil spikes once buffers are gone.
- Goldman: 12-week Hormuz scenario = $150-154. $200 “no longer an outlier.”
The 5% demand destruction Blas flagged has been the only thing keeping the lid on. Buffer is gone by July, and the energy crisis gets a lot worse, fast.
Clean energy supply chains will be sold out.