I’m sensitive to concerns about criticizing this deal from what amounts to a hawkish position… but this is a bad deal. A bad end to a bad war is still a good thing, but part of an evaluation of the war is taking seriously the consequences of putting the United States in such an untenable position.

The MOU confirms what many have suspected over the last week: the war was an utter failure for the United States and Israel, even given the significant damage inflicted on Iranian military installations. 

The US has abandoned the goal of regime change, has agreed to allow Iran’s non-nuclear military programs to proceed unabated, has agreed to restrain Israel in Lebanon, and is offering immediate sanctions relief that will undoubtedly reinvigorate Iran’s economic and military infrastructure.

 Worse, Iran has learned that it can close the Strait of Hormuz at will without incurring significant consequences. 

And at Versailles of all fucking places.

I also tend to agree with much of the analytic community that sixty days is not nearly long enough to negotiate out the nuclear and financial aspects of the agreement.

Iran has some incentives to play nice ($300 billion reconstruction, $100 billion in frozen assets) but it’s all carrot, no stick; Tehran is fully aware that Trump will have no interest whatsoever in restarting the war with the midterms on the near horizon.