It is conventional wisdom that when presidents are unpopular, they can start a war to boost their public support. Trump’s war against Iran to improve his favorability ratings has backfired badly.
- He tempted fate by declaring that “We won. . . in the first hour, it was over.” He rejected potential support from allies, posting, “We don’t need people that join Wars after we’ve already won!”
- One week later, Trump is begging, cajoling, and threatening allies he previously shunned and insulted, demanding they help the US reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. Not surprisingly, their response has been non-committal.
- But it gets worse. The war is going so badly for the US that Trump is threatening media outlets with “Treason”—which can include the death penalty—for reporting truthfully on the war.
Trump is exuding fear and desperation, a fact that will only harden the resolve of Iran to maintain its closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has few options: Expand the war dramatically by sending tens of thousands of US soldiers onto the Iranian coast in the Persian Gulf or declare victory, cease hostilities, and hope that Iran acts rationally to protect its economic interests in a free-flowing global oil trade.
I discuss the details below, but here’s the point for those seeking to defeat Trump and his enablers. He is weak, desperate, and cornered. Now is the time to ratchet up the pressure through political protests larger than any ever seen in American history.
Trump is weak and desperate because he can see a blue wave swelling in the distance, a wave that will bring oversight, investigations, and impeachments. By maximizing pressure on Trump now, we can accelerate his decision to stop the political hemorrhaging by ceasing hostilities. We have seized the momentum; Trump is in retreat. Let’s press our advantage!
Trump begs and threatens US allies to help reopen Strait of Hormuz
In three separate communications over the weekend, Trump begged and threatened US allies to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In an interview with Financial Times, a press gaggle on Air Force One, and an unhinged rant on Truth Social, Trump demanded that the UK, Japan, South Korea, China, and NATO allies help to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. See Financial Times, Donald Trump warns Nato faces ‘very bad future’ if allies fail to help US in Iran (Gift article, accessible to all.)
In his interview with the Financial Times, Trump said that NATO faces a “very bad” future if European nations did not assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz. He said, in part,
We have a thing called NATO. We’ve been very sweet. We didn’t have to help them with Ukraine. Ukraine is thousands of miles away from us . . . But we helped them. Now we’ll see if they help us. Because I’ve long said that we’ll be there for them, but they won’t be there for us. And I’m not sure that they’d be there.
Trump resorted to a “planted” story in the Wall Street Journal previewing an announcement this week about a “coalition” of nations that would commit naval vessels to escort ships through the Strait. See WSJ, Exclusive: Trump Administration Plans to Announce Coalition to Escort Ships Through Strait of Hormuz.
But the story planted in the WSJ made clear that the “coalition” was illusory by noting that the coalition members “were still discussing . . . whether those operations would begin before or after hostilities end.”
Two observations: If the alleged members of the coalition are “still discussing” the formation of the coalition, it doesn’t exist. And if the coalition comes into operation only “after hostilities end,” the coalition is a PR stunt.
The response to the Trump’s trial balloon of a global coation to provide escorts was decidedly negative. See The Guardian, Trump’s call for allied deployment to strait of Hormuz meets muted response | Strait of Hormuz.
For example, per the Guardian,
A senior Japanese politician told the news channel NHK TV that Japan would not rule out sending warships to the region to secure the shipping lane but said the threshold for doing so was “very high”.
The UK said it was considering sending “mine hunting drones,” which is a far cry from providing a “naval escort.”
France said it would not participate in any operations in the Gulf.
Germany’s foreign minister said he was “very sceptical that extending [existing naval deployments] to the Strait of Hormuz would provide greater security.”
China said it would work to strengthen “communication with relevant parties” in the Middle East.
Where does that leave Trump? The Strait of Hormuz is closed for the 17th day, the largest shipping disruption since WWII. See Hormuz Crisis Dashboard — Real-Time Shipping Disruption Tracker. The closure is currently affecting 10% of oil tankers, with 100% of oil shippers suspending operations in the Persian Gulf. Trump is just beginning to understand the ramifications of trash-talking our allies for the last year. Having been dismissed and demeaned, they are in no hurry to help the US fix the crisis that Trump created.
Trump threatens the media to stop reporting truthfully on the war
As news of US casualties and equipment losses / damage mounts, the administration wants the media to stop reporting on those setbacks, instead focusing only on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s chest-beating about the US military blowing things up.
Trump went on a truly epic rant on Truth Social, which I will not repeat. You can search for it if you want, but make yourself a cup of tea and get comfortable before you start reading it. The point is that Trump is furious that the news of his war with Iran is making him look bad. (It’s always about him.) If you want to read a short summary, see The Daily Beast, Trump demands death penalty for reporters in unhinged war rant.
Per the Daily Beast, Trump said, in part, that a story reported by the Wall Street Journal about damage to five US refueling aircraft was false. (One refueling aircraft was shot down, resulting in the loss of six lives of US crew members.) Trump wrote,
The story was knowingly FAKE and, in a certain way, you can say that those Media Outlets that generated it should be brought up on Charges for TREASON for the dissemination of false information!
Brandon Carr, the chair of the FCC, was spotted at Mar-a-Lago shortly after Trump’s tirade. Immediately thereafter, Carr snapped to attention and threatened networks with revocation of their licenses for reporting negative stories about the war. See CNN, FCC chair threatens TV networks amid Iran war coverage — but his warning rings hollow.
CNN’s headline suggests that the FCC chair does not have unilateral authority to revoke licenses. That suggestion is correct.
The reaction to Carr’s threats was swift and negative. Even Republicans criticized Carr for acting like he was the agent of an authoritarian dictator. Senator Ron Johnson recognized that Carr’s threats were beyond the pale. See The Hill, Ron Johnson criticizes Brendan Carr’s broadcast threats.
Johnson said the following on a Fox News Sunday talk show:
I am a big supporter of the First Amendment. I do not like the heavy-handed government, no matter who is wielding it. … I would rather the federal government stay out of the private sector as much as possible. The federal government’s role is to protect our freedoms — protect our constitutional rights.
When you have lost Ron Johnson, the closest thing to a human fence post in GOP caucus in the Senate, you are losing bigly.
Trump failed to heed the warnings of advisors who were appointed to be “Yes” men. The escalating economic damage was foreseeable and foreseen. Trump is now attempting to blame others for the mess he created—including NATO, China, South Korea, and the media.
The tactic will not work. Trump owns everything about the war on Iran—any positive outcomes, as well as every negative outcome, including global economic shocks. Our task is to ensure that the American electorate understands that Trump started this war on his own and is responsible for everything, good and bad, that happened after the first missiles were fired.