As the grotesque mixed-martial arts fights took place on the White House lawn to mark the aging of the president, there was some sort of agreement that allegedly ended hostilities against Iran by the U.S. The absence of the actual text of the three-page memorandum of understanding has not stopped gullible media from repeating Trump’s claims about the agreement. A few media outlets—like the NYTimes—had the decency to couch their reporting as “claims made” by Trump. See, e.g., Trump Claims Strait Will Be ‘Permanently Toll-Free’ Under Agreement With Iran. Iran appeared to contradict the premise of Trump’s claim on Sunday, saying that the Strait would reopen “under Iran’s administration.”
Even as Trump’s claims about the agreement shifted inexplicably on Sunday, Iran contradicted Trump. So, the only prudent thing to do is to say what we don’t know about the agreement. A good example of such reporting can be found in The Guardian, What do we know about the US-Iran peace deal – and what questions remain?
As explained by The Guardian, the following items are subject to competing claims on Sunday evening:
The timing of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. On Sunday, Trump said the Strait would open “immediately,” but then changed position to say it would open by Friday of this week “to allow for clearing of mines.” The intermediary who helped broker the agreement, Pakistan’s Prime Minister, said that “the agreed memorandum of understanding calls for the reopening of the strait within 30 days.”
Control of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump says the Strait will open “toll-free.” Iran’s Prime Minister said the Strait would reopen “under Iranian arrangements.” Whatever “under Iranian arrangements” means, it appears to be something different than “toll-free.” Per the New York Times, the agreement says only that Iran agrees to “suspend tolls in the strait for only 60 days.”
Ceasefire in Lebanon. An Iranian negotiator said, “A permanent and immediate end to the war has been declared on all fronts, including Lebanon.” Trump made no mention of Lebanon in his remarks. Israel is not a party to the agreement; Israel and Hezbollah (in Beirut) exchanged strikes on Sunday, an hour before the agreement was electronically signed. See Axios, Trump to Axios: Netanyahu has “no ******* judgment” but Iran deal still on. In short, the inclusion of Lebanon in the ceasefire seems to be a disputed question as of late on Sunday.
Iran’s nuclear program. Trump claims that “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon,” but if it develops one, the US will recommence hostilities against Iran. So, a real lack of clarity on this point, even from Trump. Per The Guardian,
The president repeated on Sunday his promise that “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon” but senior Pakistani officials told the Associated Press that nuclear talks would continue over the next 60 days. Trump himself told the New York Times that if Tehran failed to reach a nuclear deal, it could come under fresh attack by the US military.
While administration officials (like JD Vance) are saying that the agreement will “fundamentally reshape the Middle East for the next 50 years,” the unreleased agreement seems to reduce to the following:
- The Strait of Hormuz will resume its prewar status, except that Iran may charge tolls; and
- The US and Iran will continue negotiations over Iran’s uranium enrichment program.
That’s it. Despite all of the posturing and preening that will follow, Trump got nothing in exchange for an illegal war that costs hundreds of billions of dollars, inflicted global economic injury, increased inflation in the US, and resulted in the deaths of 14 US soldiers and thousands of Iranian citizens, including much of its moderate civilian leadership. The Middle East and the US now face a newly emboldened Iran with more militant leadership.