A campaigning Trump sold a booming economy, shrinking trade deficits, and job growth that would surpass anything the masses had ever seen. Then he was inaugurated. And his promise of plenty shattered on the rocks of reality. But the man knew his fans. He kept lying. And now that the numbers contradict his claims, he rages, obfuscates, and blames others.
On Wednesday, ADP, a preeminent payroll and HR services company released its May private sector employment report. It showed a sharp decline in new job growth, with only 37,000 new positions added. It was the smallest gain in more than two years. It was far short of Dow’s prediction of 110,000.
The future looks even worse. What will happen to jobs as Trump’s tariffs — the ones he hasn’t chickened out on — kick in? For instance, steel tariffs have doubled today to 50%. You can bet that any business making stuff out of the metal is calculating how many jobs it will have to shed as demand declines in the face of rising prices.
Sadly but predictably, the administration has no plan beyond yelling. On Thursday morning, Trump reacted to the dismal news by lashing out on Truth Social and finger-pointing. His target was the Fed head, Jerome Powell.
“ADP NUMBER OUT!!! “Too Late” Powell must now LOWER THE RATE. He is unbelievable!!! Europe has lowered NINE TIMES!”
As usual, the Bozo in the Oval was making stuff up. “Europe” — I’m guessing he means European Central Bank — has lowered its interbank loan rate three times, not “NINE TIMES!” in 2025. In addition, context is key. The EU did not do as well in 2024 (GDP +1.0%) as the US did in Biden’s last year (GDP +2.8%). Things were getting better in America.
The Fed was not worried about a recession. Their mandate was to stop inflation from returning. It wasn’t until Trump dynamited the economy that poor job growth became a pressing issue. In essence, Trump is saying, “I shat the bed. Why isn’t Powell cleaning it up?”
And shit the bed he did. America’s new golden trade age is on hold. The agricultural forecast, for one, is so bad that the administration is trying to bury the numbers. Here is how Politico reported it:
Trump administration officials delayed and redacted a government forecast because it predicts an increase in the nation’s trade deficit in farm goods later this year, according to two people familiar with the matter.
The numbers run counter to President Donald Trump’s messaging that his economic policies, including tariffs, will reduce US trade imbalances. The politically inconvenient data prompted administration officials to block publication of the written analysis normally attached to the report because they disliked what it said about the deficit.
Here is the relevant chart from the USDA’s report:
For years, the slam on Trump is that he is a man so bad at business he couldn’t even make money as a casino owner. The observation has legs because it perfectly sums up the man. It is a rare business that guarantees its operator a positive top-line cash flow. And yet Trump managed to squander that advantage.
I fear that the economic statistics will become so dire that the administration will start manipulating the numbers. Every previous President has let the Labor Department and other executive agencies issue their monthly, quarterly, and annual reports without political interference. That will not last, as the redacted trade report shows.
Conservatives and libertarians (who are merely conservatives too embarrassed to use the title) may hate the Fed, but it is a rara avis in today’s Washington — an independent agency. The citizens will have to rely on it and iprivate companies like ADP when MAGA starts cooking the government’s books.
In addition, should the Democrats regain the House in 2026 (and they had better do so, or it will get existential), at least part of one branch of the federal government will be on the people’s side. But if MAGA wins, we will have to live with a North Korean approach to information dissemination.