President Trump announced on Tuesday evening that he was pausing the day-old U.S. operation to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz “for a short period of time,” citing what he said was “great progress” toward an agreement with Iran.
His announcement, in a social media post, came only hours after Secretary of State Marco Rubio asserted that the United States had concluded combat operations against Iran and was fully focused on the new mission. Only three commercial ships have managed to make it through the strait since the United States began the operation, dubbed Project Freedom, on Monday.
The president’s sudden U-turn on the escort mission was just his latest over the course of the war, which is now in its third month. When the U.S. Central Command was asked for comment on the change, a spokesman referred questions to the White House.
Mr. Rubio, briefing reporters at the White House earlier, had expanded on Mr. Trump’s assertion last week that he did not need to seek approval from Congress to continue the war in Iran beyond a 60-day legal limit, and said: “The operation is over: Epic Fury — as the president notified Congress — we’re done with that stage of it. We’re now onto this Project of Freedom.”
The war is in a shaky cease-fire, and ship traffic in the strait is a major point of contention. Iran, whose drones and missiles threaten both shipping and neighboring countries, has warned repeatedly that vessels can pass through the strait only with its permission.
At the same time, the U.S. blockade is keeping Iranian ships from crossing. Mr. Trump said in his post on Tuesday evening that the blockade would “remain in full force and effect.”
Commercial traffic is at a near-total standstill. Two commercial vessels crossed the strait under U.S. military protection on Monday and only one on Tuesday — a trickle compared to before the war, when around 130 vessels a day made the passage.
On Tuesday, the United States and Iran made competing claims about having control of the strait, which remains effectively closed. And an American ally, the United Arab Emirates, said that it had come under attack by Iranian missiles and drones for the second day in a row.
So — let’s sum up where things stand in Operation Trump’s Head Up HIs Ass:
Trump humiliated Rubio by having him defend Project Freedom to the hilt at a presser today, only to unilaterally suspend the “project” this evening
Per the Eurasia Group, Trump pulled the plug on it because 1) Iran sank a South Korean tanker and nearly took out two other ships despite US naval protection, and 2) Trump was informed by a liaison to the international shipping insurance consortium that none of their members would support it without Iran agreeing not to shoot.
In other words, Iran holds all the cards to get Trump out of this quagmire. He has to bend the knee. Is he smart enough to realize that, cut a deal and move on?