Last week was tough, and this week will be, too, because Trump will be braying like a donkey about forcing the Big Ugly Bill on the GOP and the American people. I will circle back to the events of last week later in this newsletter, but it is important to recognize that the Big Ugly Bill is the high-water mark of MAGA extremism.
The fact that congressional Republicans are backing a historically unpopular bill that breaks the most basic promises that GOP candidates made in 2024 is a sign of desperation. They understand this is their last chance ever to gut health and social benefits. If it costs them control of the House, the Senate, and the presidency, they are willing to swallow that bitter pill.
No need to believe me. According to those few Republicans willing to speak the truth about the bill, including Trump’s former “Best Friend Forever,” Elon Musk, the reconciliation bill is “an act of political suicide.” See Newsweek, Elon Musk calls Donald Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill “political suicide”.
Musk’s posts are linked to recent polling by a leading Republican polling firm (The Tarrance Group) that found that the reconciliation bill was wildly unpopular with Republican voters.
Musk had other choice words for the bill, including “utterly insane and destructive.”
A Fox “News” poll (conducted a week ago) found that the bill is even more unpopular among all voters. See Fox News, Fox News poll spells bad news for Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
Only 38 percent favored the bill, while 59 percent opposed it, a 21-point gap against the bill. About half of all voters believed the legislation would be detrimental to their families, and just a quarter thought it would deliver any benefit.
However, the bill has worsened since the Fox News poll. Over the weekend, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office released a report estimating that the Senate version of the reconciliation bill will add $3.3 trillion to the deficit and result in 12 million people losing Medicaid coverage over the next decade. See Axios, Senate’s “big, beautiful bill” would add $3.3 trillion in new debt: CBO.
And, as a cascading effect of the Big Ugly Bill’s increase in deficits, another statute will force cuts to Medicare of approximately $500 billion. See House Committee on Budget / Democrats, House-Passed FY25 Reconciliation Bill Triggers $535 Billion in Medicare Cuts.
Trump has muscled the bill through the Senate by threatening to mount primary challenges against any Senator who voted against the bill. On Sunday, GOP Senator Thom Tillis voted against a procedural motion to advance the bill. Trump posted on social media that he would find a primary challenger against Senator Tillis, who immediately announced that he would not run for reelection in 2026—and then took the Senate floor to speak the truth about the damage that will be caused by the bill. See Bloomberg, Trump Tax Bill Advances in Senate as GOP Scrounges for Votes.
Per Bloomberg,
Trump, who had been monitoring the Senate action this weekend from the Oval Office, swiftly threatened to find a GOP challenger to North Carolina’s Thom Tillis, one of the two Republicans to oppose opening debate on the bill. Rand Paul of Kentucky also voted against the motion.
The moment Senator Tillis was free of Trump (by announcing his retirement), Tillis took the Senate floor to acknowledge that the bill breaks Trump’s promise not to reduce Medicaid. See The Hill, Tillis: Senate bill breaks Trump’s promise on Medicaid.
Senator Tillis said,
What do I tell 663,000 people in two years or three years, when President Trump breaks his promise by pushing them off of Medicaid because the funding’s not there anymore, guys? I think the people in the White House… advising the president are not telling him that the effect of this bill is to break a promise,
Now Republicans are about to make a mistake on health care and betraying a promise, It is inescapable that this bill in its current form will betray the very promise that Donald J. Trump made in the Oval Office or in the cabinet room, when I was there with finance, where he said, we can go after waste, fraud, and abuse on any programs.
I am telling the president that you have been misinformed. You supporting the Senate [bill] will hurt people who are eligible and qualified for Medicaid.
Notwithstanding the opposition of Senators Tillis and Rand Paul, the bill will pass because Senator Susan Collins has once again allowed herself to be bullied by Donald Trump. She is a coward who has betrayed the people of Maine on too many occasions to count.
So, too, with Senator Josh Hawley, who went through the preening motions of opposing the bill, only to back Trump as he always does. It’s another “fist pump” to the insurrectionists on January 6, except this time MAGA extremists are coming for grandma and grandpa’s healthcare and retirement.
Democrats will take Senator Tillis’s seat—because his Trump-endorsed replacement must publicly state that they would have voted for the Big Ugly Bill. And Susan Collins’ political future is over. She currently has a favorable rating of 14% and an unfavorable rating of 57% in Maine. See Teagan Goddard’s Political Wire (6/27/25), Maine Voters Don’t Like Susan Collins.
With Tillis gone and Collins historically unpopular, Democrats have a shot at flipping the Senate. I know, I know—every political pundit and rating book says Republicans have the advantage in the Senate in 2026 because their spreadsheets and backward-looking models can’t model an election following passage of the Big Ugly Bill.
Indeed, the prognosticators are part of the problem because they engender “learned helplessness.” They tell us that history determines our fate. Not true! We are not electrons forming pixels on a spreadsheet. We are American citizens with the power to decide our future.
Below is a list of the Republican seats up for election in 2026. We need to flip five seats to be confident of a one-seat majority (and creating a cushion for vulnerable Democrats in red states).
- Thom Tillis (not seeking reelection)
- Susan Collins (Maine) (Same favorability ratings as disgraced Rep. George Santos before his resignation from House.)
- Joni Ernst (Iowa) (Public Policy Polling (6/4/25), Joni Ernst Unpopular, May Face Tough Reelection.)
- Lindsey Graham (South Carolina) (Newsweek (6/5/25), Lindsey Graham Gets Bad Polling News Ahead of Reelection Campaign)
- John Cornyn (Texas) (Houston Public Media, U.S. Sen. John Cornyn rebukes report that he’s considering dropping out of 2026 race.)
- Roger Marshall (Kansas) (Was roundly booed and jeered at during his only town-hall meeting; he blamed “outside agitators” because the truth hurts.)
- Bill Cassidy (Louisiana) (Will likely face a GOP primary because he voted to convict Trump in the second impeachment; Cassidy was censured by Louisiana GOP.)
- Tommy Tuberville (Alabama) (Retiring to run for governor.)
- Ashley Moody (Florida) (Special election to replace Marco Rubio)
- Mitch McConnell (Kentucky) (Retiring)
- Shelley Moore Capito (West Virginia)
- Tom Cotton (Arkansas)
- Steve Daines (Montana)
- Bill Hagerty (Tennessee)
- Cindy Hyde-Smith (Mississippi)
- Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming)
- Dan Sullivan (Alaska)
- Jim Risch (Idaho)
- Pete Ricketts (Nebraska) (Replaced Ben Sasse; now seeking full term.)
- John Husted (Ohio) (Seeking full term to replace JD Vance)
- Markwayne Mullin (Oklahoma)
- Mike Rounds (South Dakota)
Frankly, I wouldn’t take anyone off the list as being vulnerable. The massive cuts in the Big Ugly Bill will become the default target of blame for every denial of Medicaid, Medicare, Affordable Care Act coverage, and lost job, illness, or injury due to the war on green energy, cuts to FEMA, NOAA, NIH, FDA, and more.
None of the above will take the sting out of the reconciliation bill if it passes. (There is still time to call your Senators and Representatives! Use 5 Calls!) The bill will cause suffering, financial hardship, food insecurity, and lack of access to medical care for tens of millions of Americans. And our children and grandchildren will be forced to pay for the tax savings of billionaires and millionaires in the short term.